a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o ----------------------------- 1|= ' V ' J | 2| + M O A N S W E B| 3| + E ' U ' O W E| 4|' + D N + N G| Joel Sherman 273 AGORAEE on move 5| B I T R A N Q S | 6| " A T " U " | Matt Graham 277 Last BAYED e5 41 7| ' Y a ' ' P I ' | 8|= ' E T T R O M P =| Unseen: A EEE IIII OO U 9| ' D E ' O ' L U H | C L N RR S TT X Z (21) 10| " " I V Y A " | 11| + C L A S H e D | 12|' + ' N D A R K| 13| + F O G I E L I| 14| + " " + E| 15|= ' = ' F| -----------------------------From: GIJoel
On Sat, 13 Sep 1997 JanDixon writes:
the agorae play. I was under the impression that your 7th tile was another E, but Matt thought you commented that you picked up the E's. Which is correct?
It was an E, I commented that I picked the rest of the E's after that play.It was a strange finish. I just spent the last day Mavenizing that game,and the sims showed I played the number one move on 7 of the first8 turns; DARK ran 2nd to DEFT o2, guess the o1 play was too largenot to defend against but I figured I'd still be needing a bingo toget back in the game whether he had the O or not, so I was looking to optimize my leave, and gambled he didn't have the O, while holdingthe DE still left me the opportunity to defend that spot or clobber him with it if I drew the O myself and I still couldn't bingo. I missed kITTENED 4c 71 when I played MEDITaTE; for 9 more points, the sim showed I'd only give up 2 points of positional compensation so MEDITaTE was also 2nd best. I considered ERGO d6 25 and GOER d4 23 instead of AGORAE but I got so fixated on the idea that I was going to get steamrolled in the endgame if Matt had both the Z and the X that I overlooked the defensive strength of GOER. GOER came out a clear best in sim at 1, 2, and 3 move look ahead, and while I was watching this sim, I realized why it is so good, it limits Matt to starting a play with an O at d9, or doing something with an A under FOGIE which must give me back a 15h play. My move woundup third at 7.20, behind ERGO 8.10 as well as GOER 13.45. And that'susing a program that can't even account for an inference about Matt'srack that I totally forgot about: after MOANS the turn before, I should have concluded he was 95% to have the case S, because he playedone for 3 points while VAUNT was still open. Therefore AGORAE is actually several points weaker than even the sim shows. I probablymade that inference when he first played MOANS, but I completelyforgot about it after the ensuing moves. There is of course one majordrawback to GOER, Matt could have ZAX 14f for 53, and if I fail to recoup the O, I figure to lose by close to 100. But the majority of cases, Matt won'thave ZAXO in his hand, and even if he does, he may be hesitant to play ZAXif he thinks I have the other O. I now think AGORAE was a mistake, tho I'm not entirely sure how much of a mistake.
Further to Jaygee, AGORA did rather poorly in the sim as well. I didn't include its number because after the first 1-ply trial, it was so low I discarded it for the 2 and 3-ply trials. It gets me slaughtered when Matt has some word that starts EX, hooking FA/X, and he isn't forced to start a word with a specific letter like the S, any old thing is going to hook FA. I much prefer GOER to AGORA, for not giving up those row 15 points and for the fact it continues to hold the A in case I draw ZX. It takes a moderate lead on a board where it is very difficult for Matt to score as much if he doesn't hold both biggies yet.
G.I. Junowho
Last Modified 9/26/00
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